The blog
Notes from the compendium.
Essays, case studies and practical guides on the statistical illusions that turn correct numbers into confident mistakes — every post drawn out in figures.
Does bacon really cause cancer?
How "processed meat causes cancer" became "bacon is as deadly as smoking" — hazard vs. risk, and the missing baseline.
Read →Survivorship bias: the evidence is in the graveyard
Wald's bombers, fund graveyards, the falling-cats study and founder folklore — how filters write datasets.
Read →Five statistical paradoxes that change how you read the news
Honest numbers, dishonest conclusions — and the five questions that catch them. With five figures.
Read →Simpson's paradox in the wild: three examples that fooled the experts
Berkeley admissions, COVID vaccine tables and a famous baseball season — each reversal drawn out in full.
Read →What a positive test result actually means
Your test is 90% accurate and came back positive. The honest answer is about 9% — counted out in pictures.
Read →