unspurious.

A growing compendium of statistical illusions & everyday data mistakes

Data that tells the truth. Conclusions that don't.

Every entry here is a way for flawless arithmetic to walk you confidently to the wrong answer — explained slowly, with figures you can poke.

The genre, in one picture One dataset, two true statements, opposite advice — entry № 1
WHAT THE TOTAL SAYS ↗
Fig. 0 — Why this compendium exists. Nothing in the collection is miscounted, mistyped or faked. Every illusion is built from correct numbers — which is exactly what makes them dangerous, and exactly why a spreadsheet can never referee them for you.

How to read this compendium

Same trap, different costumes

Statistical illusions are not exotic. They decide drug approvals, court verdicts, league tables, hiring rounds and headlines — and they survive because each is built from numbers that are individually, checkably true. The lie lives in the step from number to conclusion.

The collection is organised by mechanism rather than by field, because the same trap resurfaces everywhere wearing different clothes: an illusion of aggregation looks the same in a hospital and a ballpark. Each published entry opens with an interactive figure where the illusion happens in front of you — one toggle, two honest readings. Throughout, the colour claret marks the misleading reading, and each entry closes with the one question that would have saved you, collected at the bottom of this page as a pocket checklist. New entries are added as they're written; the dashed cards are next in the queue.

The compendium

Ways to be honestly wrong

The pocket checklist

The questions that would have saved you

Each published entry is disarmed by a single question, asked before believing the number. The checklist grows with the compendium — memorise it and you can skip the rest of the site, though you'd miss the salmon.